Under / Over

TheCaptain · #1 April 6th, 2008, 08:31

Gents and Ladies....

Since this bet was pointed out to me by Manwiththe know, I have built up some fairly useful statistics and in the last month I have had two 4 team accumulators, two trebles, several doubles, but have also had several that have let me down, but overall I am up on this bet.

I do not consider myself any sort of expert, but thought I would share my thoughts with the forum, and its then up to you what you do with it.

Todays games are

Middlesborough Vs Man U - Ladbrokes are offering the goal line at 2.5/3.0 - This looks like value to me as middlesborough have a total goal count in their last 7 games of 8 goals in total. Man U on the other hand seem to score at will, but are averaging 2.7 goals scored in their last 10 home games, and only an average of 2 in their last 10 away games (including the 5-1 at Newcastle and 4-0 at Sunderland) With boroughs tight defence, and the goal line in your favour, this looks like an under to me.

I consider this might be 0-2 (possibly 0-1)

Everton Vs Derby

Goal line is set at 2.5 and this appears to reasonable, however Derby are averaging just 0.6 goals per game over the last 10 away games, and everton 2.0 over the last ten - I think the issue here is whether Derby will score. If they do, it will probably be over, but Evertons defence have conceeded just 2 goals in the last 5 games, so with Derby ineptitude at scoring I am going for Under here.

I consider this might be 1-0 (possibly 2-0)

So as a double Borough Under and Everton Under (3.57 on lads or 4.12 on betfair)

If you feel lucky.... you might want to treble this up with the FA Cup game

Barnsley Vs Cardiff

At wembley, so no home or away advantage here. So am going on the stats for all games over the season. Cardiff have averaged 0.6 goals in their last 10 games and conceeded just 0.6 goals in the last 10 games. Barnsley have are averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceeded. This look like an under to me. Ladbrokes are offering the goal line at 2.0/2.5 - no value there, and Betfair are offering 1.66 on the under 2.5 so not much more value there, but thats the info for you.

THESE ARE NOT TIPS - Use this information as you see fit, but lets see what happens.

Tony2005 · #2 April 6th, 2008, 11:45

Thank you Captain, i think you are spot on with your advice and i will have a little bet on them.

Its an interesting bet and why i like it is that you are not relying on one or other team winning just that either scores a few or they both dont let any in.

Ive had a few good results using this formula and will continue to use it.

My Dad only bets cricket and football and has been fairly sucsessful over the years.

He bets THE OUTSIDER in the cricket and his football formula i will post in time for next season.....its well worth a litle dabble with that....gl

bennythedip2 · #3 April 6th, 2008, 11:55

I like this formula, overs/unders..but as for Man Utd have you notice how many games Ronaldo has been 1st goal scorer this season...Wish i had done this every game this season

TheCaptain · #4 April 6th, 2008, 14:36

Man U deliver their goals... but why did Middlesborough choose the title leaders to start scoring against.... !!! Lol

~Ah well, if people are interested, I will post my comments over the coming games and see what happens....

Still two results to go to see if my theories work, but not a good start...

Tony2005 · #5 April 6th, 2008, 14:46

Yes it would be interesting to see how things are going, i saw the Chelsea v Boro game last weekend and boro had some really good chances but missed them, today was a different matter.

TheCaptain · #6 April 6th, 2008, 18:15

Hmmmm - Middlesborough (or was it Man U's defence letting me down???)

But Everton under (and 1-0 to boot)

And under for the Semi final......

I might be on to something!!!