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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL - Gold Cup Day 4
All's well that ends Well
Channel 4 commentator Simon Holt previews the final day of the Cheltenham Festival and fancies Holywell in the big one - the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup.
HOLYWELL, a winner at the last two Cheltenham Festivals, could make it a glorious three-timer in a wide-open Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, the climax of this year's Festival on Friday.
Jonjo O'Neill's gelding, who took the Pertemps Final here in 2013 before winning over fences 12 months ago - on both occasions ridden by Richie McLernon - has clearly been trained with this big day in mind this season after proving that he could cut it at a high level when slamming Don Cossack by ten lengths at Aintree last April.
Best in blinkers, Holywell comes here after an easy win at Kelso and, so proven in the Festival hubbub, could be the one to be on in a ferociously difficult race to solve in what is a modest era for staying chasers.
Silviniaco Conti, who won his second King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, is probably the best of the bunch but he has yet to deliver at Cheltenham, falling when holding every chance three out in this race two years ago and then inexplicably failing to get the job done last year when leading over the last.
Having looked the likely winner that day, he then hung both left and right on the run-in eventually finishing only fourth behind Lord Windermere, On His Own and The Giant Bolster in a bunch finish with past Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth fifth and Houblon Des Obeaux ninth. It was the most confusing of races with less than two lengths covering the first four home.
Fitted with cheekpieces in his last two starts and treated for ulcers since last year, Silviniaco Conti has bounced back to his best and, if he jumps as well as he did at Kempton last time, he will surely be the one to beat. But there is just that small question mark hanging over him regarding Cheltenham and not everyone is convinced he truly stays three-and-a-quarter miles either.
Apart from the favourite, the best of this season's form is represented by Many Clouds, unbeaten in three starts including the Hennessy at Newbury, and Irish raiders Road To Riches and Carlingford Lough, winners of the Lexus and Irish Hennessy respectively.
Many Clouds has really come of age as a chaser this term, following up his Newbury victory with a battling defeat of Smad Place, Dynaste and The Giant Bolster in the Betbright Cup on the course in late January.
Oliver Sherwood's strapping beast is an admirable type who could be good enough to win a weak Gold Cup and the forecasted overnight rain will fall in his favour.
Both the Lexus and Irish Hennessy resulted in finishes in which several horses were covered by not many lengths endorsing the view that there are few outstanding staying chasers about. However, Road To Riches, who won the Galway Plate last summer, has done nothing but improve and looks ground versatile.
Carlingford Lough, who didn't jump particularly well in the RSA Chase here last year, was only fifth in the Lexus before beating the likes of Foxrock, Lord Windermere, Boston Bob and the inconsistent On His Own at Leopardstown and, could, therefore, be coming to hand. As required by his contract with owner J P McManus, A P McCoy again takes the mount though I do wonder if the champ might have preferred to have been aboard Holywell.
Last year's winner Lord Windermere, also successful in the RSA Chase in 2013, certainly has fine Cheltenham credentials and trainer Jim Culloty has made no secret of the fact he has been preparing the horse this season for one big day. He could well be a major player once again despite his recent efforts being only satisfactory at best.
If he could reproduce his previous achievements here, Bobs Worth would have a major chance again but he ran a lacklustre race in the Lexus, albeit on ground softer than he likes, and surely needs to step up on last year's fifth here when, like Silviniaco Conti, he hung very badly after the last.
Perhaps the dark horse in the field is Djakadam who was travelling strongly when falling four out in the JLT Chase at this meeting last year. That error came too far from home to be sure how he would have fared up the hill and he made little show in the Hennessy at Newbury in November before which he looked in need of the run.
However, this highly regarded Willie Mullins-trained six-year-old put up a much better performance to win the Thyestes Chase under top weight at Gowran Park in January and, while he still needs to make further improvement (that victory came off a mark of only 145), the potential is there.
It is also fascinating to see the novice Coneygree in the field after his destruction of Houblon Des Obeaux at Newbury last time. It's a brave call to run such an inexperienced horse in a Gold Cup but Mark Bradstock's hugely promising chaser jumps well and ground conditions might suit him well if the rain materialises.
The Giant Bolster runs in his fourth Gold Cup after finishing second to Synchronised in 2012, fourth to Bobs Worth in 2013 and third last year. Away from Cheltenham, the 10-year-old is an enigma but it won't be the biggest surprise if he saves his best for the big occasion again even though he didn't really fire behind Many Clouds here in January.
On a difficult support card, THE GAME CHANGER is a fascinating runner in the Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle on his first run for trainer Gordon Elliott following the retirement of his previous handler Charlie Swan.
Elliott reports the horse in good form and a repeat of his third behind Thomas Edison and this season's Ladbroke winner Bayan in the Galway Hurdle last season would ensure a very bold show.
Both Quick Jack, a versatile horse trained by Tony Martin who finished third to Big Easy in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last autumn, and last Saturday's Imperial Cup winner Ebony Express are others who should run well.
In the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, VALUE AT RISK should relish a step up in distance and can give his trainer Dan Skelton a first Festival winner.
A smart bumper horse, he was caught for a bit of toe in a steadily run affair over two-and-a-half miles here last time before keeping on close home behind Ordo Ab Chao (not disgraced in the Neptune on Wednesday) but travelled like the best horse in the field. He is rated highly by his up and coming handler and had been hugely impressive at Newbury earlier on his hurdling debut.