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The US Open Golf...Forum selections
After a good run in the masters and finding the winner (Garcia) of the USPGA this week we have another major The US Open.
This major is by far the hardest to win as the courses picked to play this on are always the toughest around. So all you golf lovers start studying and get your selections posted by Wednesday night so we can have a little dabble in the golf markets.. |
Yep Ready
Tiger :'D
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Will be making my selections and posting my thoughts in next day or two....soooooooooooo cant wait to be watching it!!!
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Tiger for me
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Tigers been a little quiet
over the last few weeks and although hes always going to be the one to beat when he tees it up i think theres some better value to be had...
The US Open has thrown up a few surprise winners over the last 15 years and maybe another on the cards this year..... I will be having a study of what i think could be value bets for this years and will post them on Wednesday.. |
Ok..here is my analysis of the US Open and betting propositions that i'll be placing my hard earned pennies on....
Its great to see Tiger back in action - ok he's never truly a betting proposition but just to watch the greatest golfer to ever play the game is worth it alone. However, I cannot escape from the fact that as awesome a talent and a true sporting great in every sense of the word as he is, I cannot see him winning the US Open. He cannot be fully fit and when you are playing a total monster of a course against a high class field that have prepared properly for the event in what are looking very difficult circumstances (damp and blustery is the early outlook) its no surprise to see him on the drift. Yes, an 80% Tiger is normally better than golfers at 100%, but his first tournament back after a third operation on the same knee on a 7600 yard course playing at its longest? Not for me. So, maybe for once truly, we can look to find the winner and not just place value. You have to acknowledge Phil Mickleson here. Its his home course - and whilst they normally use Torrey Pines early on in the US Tour calendar, only Phil will know how it plays in mid June. He has been in pretty good form also in the year to date and can point to several close calls in the US Open - surely this is his best chance to win it. It is not ideal that he has been paired with Tiger Woods in the first two rounds - but if he can keep himself in the hunt then his knowledge and experience round the course can prove vital and pick himself his first US Open trophy. His stats in the year to date shine through also - 7/1 on Bet365 dont get your pulse racing, but its good enough for me. With the course extremely long, you will obviously be wanting a big hitter on your side and for this reason my second selection will be Camilio Villegas. The Colombian thumps the ball miles and although comparably inexperienced in Majors, has been in good form on the US Tour so far this season, especially in West Coast events, and finished 5th in his first US Open last year. Villegas is also handy with the putter - having over a 30% birdie conversion rate (very good that) and being high on the stat list of putts per round for GIR's, where he is in the top 60. Trading at 110/1 on Bet 365 he seems to me to be a tremendous e/w pick - i wouldnt be surprised if he his higher elsewhere. 1/4 the odds on top 5 thats over 25/1 a place which to me screams value. I also like Stuart Appleby at 90/1 and Boo Weekley at 55/1 - Appleby is very much a nearly man in Majors but has the consistent game to put himself right in the mix IF he can minimise the damage he normally does to himself with the one bad round (normally rounds 3 or 4) he puts himself through, whilst Weekley has again been very consistent on the US Tour so far this season - placing himself well in the driving accuracy and greens in regulation stat category. Im resisting the urge to tip Sergio - he's in fine form but I dont think this course will suit, and also could make a good case for Robert Allenby and Justin Leonard as good e/w alternatives, but overall I will be plumping for : Mickleson 4 pts Win @ 7/1 Villegas 1 pt E/W @ 110/1 Appleby 1 pt E/W @ 90/1 Weekley 1 pt E/W @ 55/1 Odds quoted just Bet365 - not necessarily those best on offer around! |
Heres my thoughts...
Tomorrow sees the start of THE US OPEN Golf Championships this year being played at Torry Pines in California.
Hailed as the most difficult major to win the last three years has given us winners priced at 150/1-200/1 and 100/1 so that goes to prove that anyone can win this and a lot depends on if its your week or not... This years venue is one the players play every year on the USPGA tour as it hosts The Buick Invertational so maybe the longer priced players will not be as effective here as in previous years... This is a long course over 7600 yards so long and straight hitters have the advantage, the short games will be well tested as the greens will firm up over the last two days making it very hard to stop the ball on approach shots so the further away you are the more difficult it will be to get your ball close...Putting will become vertually impossible and im sure a few players will be made to look rather silly at some time or another. Great viewing for us golf fans.. Anyway on to the players i think can give us a run for our money and will be in the mix come Sunday evening... TIGER WOODS..(7/2..WH/PP/BF) Not the most original tip and although hes has to be the greatest golfer ever... not a player i back normally but at the price ofered i think we would all be stupid not to get on....Tiger has won SIX times on this course including the last 4 Buicks and of course he has already won here this year by 8 SHOTS from a very strong field. If he plays anywhere near that form this could be all over with 2 rounds to play. PAT PEREZ..(150/1 LAD)..I know what your thinking....WHO the hell is he...well not one of the bigger names on the tour but he has an advantage over most of the field here at Torry Pines..This is the course he played as a junior and was brought up here winning the 1993 Junior world championship here beating none other then Tiger Woods and his caddie has also won amateur competitions on this course so i think he could be a big price for an E/W finish. PADRIIG HARRINGTON..(25/1 LAD) A player who always seems to be there ao there abouts come Sunday in the majors. He is a player who never gives up and thats the sort we want in this tough event. Has never played the course before so that might be a slight disadvantage but im prepared to take the chance on a good showing ny the British Open Winner. EARNIE ELS..(50/1 PP/BF) Not been in great form for the past 18 months but at these odds must be backed E/W. A player who knows how to win majors and if he starts well i think could suprise here and take the title. JB HOLMES..(150/1 GENERAL) A player who is on the way up the golfing ranks and although can sometimes be a little erratic can be backed E/W here. A big hitter and with a fairly decent short game has all the attributes to play well this year. (ABBV)..LAD..ladbrokes../ BF.. betfred../ PP..paddy power..WH../ william hills. Well guys those are my fancies and hopefully you will post yours and im sure together we can get a few players in the money this year.[/ |
couple of bets
placed a few bets on people on the daq and will be looking to lay off after first couple of rounds for get some free bets
backed................ vijay singh @ 36.00 for £15.00 kj choi @ 98.00 for £5.00 retief goosen @ 54.00 for £5.00 ernie els @ 54.00 for £5.00 boo weekly @ 74.00 for £5.00 steve stricker @ 134.00 £2.00 edit.........just stuck £15.00 on garcia @ 21.00 |
Amazing...........
I started writing this early this morning and didnt read The Sharks thoughts until i had posted.....but we both are of the same opinions on the course etc....even though a little apart on selections.
A great write up Mark :clap: and i think you have made a few very valied points with your selections although i still think TIGER is great value even coming back from injury. I too have to agree with your thoughts on GARCIA a player we won money on at the PGA ....i really dont think his putting will hold up over four rounds on this course. I will be staking a few quid on your selections too as i think there is some value to be had with them as well as mine.... Good luck to everyone having a punt........ |
Manintheknow..........
Im glad someone agrees with me about ERNIE ELS.....value bet at those odds..
Somemore very good selections and i will be amazed if we havnt found the winner out of the players selected....:cool: |
Agreed
Definitely agree Tony....by the time I had posted and re-read mine I saw yours was up and was happy to see our thought processes very similar.
I would love to see Tiger win - in a day and age where sportsmen (and women!) abuse their privileged status so much and are arrogant beyond belief, Tiger is a perfect role model and someone I would suggest universally loved and respected as well as being the greatest player to ever play the worlds hardest game. I think this tourney will come a touch too soon though for the phenom though....but I fully respect your opinion Tony....and good luck to you my friend. I will also be having little saver bets on your selections, especially after your very impressive tipping at the Masters!!! Tell you what Tony...as we have both selected the top two in the market...and they are paired together in Rds 1 & 2...what say, as a friendly little side bet, we have an even fiver on who finishes with the low score over the four rounds? Phil v Tiger? You fancy it? o:D |
Lool, yes m8 would love that bet.....£5 who finishes higher.
Should be a great four days golf. The thing with Tiger is that its never quite the same when hes not in contention for a major....always gives us tv watching golf fans value when hes up there win or lose. |
Garcia has a new putting coach, within weeks of starting working with him he won a very big competition, admittedly without Tiger. He was always near the top of the field and his putting held up under pressure. He now has had another couple of weeks practice. He hardly missed a fairway or green over 4 days, leading the %'s in both I believe.
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Part Timer..............
This was the thread for the TPC that Garcia won....
Tony2005 talk sport tipster Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Newmarket Posts: 3,057 Heres my thoughts.............. Firstly this is one of my favs as anything can happen over the last few holes so if your up there on the last day you always have a chance. Looking at the field its very open now Tiger isnt playing. For my sort of bets i prefer Tiger in as he keeps the prices a bit tighter and good for laying later in the tournie. Well after a study i have five against the field at Laddies prices (although i will bet with the exchanges as you could get 10 or more points over Laddies). STUART CINK...(20/1) Has been playing some consistant golf over the last few weeks 7 top ten finishes in his last 10 starts. Not the greatest of winners but i think he could be right there come Sunday afternoon on a course that rewards consistancy ahead of flair. SERGIO GARCIA...(40/1) Been right off his game over the last 18 months but i think hes starting to get his game together again and with the help of his girlfriends father (Greg Norman) i think his putting is beginning to get somewhere near to what it was when he was winning consistantly. SCOTT VERPLANK,,,(100/1) A player who has promised so much and has been right in contention at the big ones but has failed to deliver. He has always played well here and i think that this course provides his best chance to win big STEPHEN AMES...(80/1) Overpriced as usual for a golfer who when he gets on a roll is as good as most of the top 10 (Tiger being the exception). I have backed him a few times and although he has never won for me has always given me a good run and i have been able to lay him off for a profit HENDRIK STENSON...(40/1) Not a player i back very often but hes the man in form and if you take away his early departure from this years WGC matchplay his last events read...17th 3rd 6th 2nd 2nd and i think hes going to be my main bet in this and i hope his good form can continue on a course that suits his game and one where he has played well before. Lets hope we get a good run for our money......good luck guys and enjoy.. We can keep up todate on this thread. |
This was posted before I joined, first time I have read it mate. Garcia leads the stats for distance and accuracy in driving, if his putting holds up @20/1 must be a good bet. Hope so, my moneys down :t:
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Good luck, should be a good tournement....ive always liked Garcia but my concern is that his putting wont hold up on what will be lightening quick greens.
If it does then he is a major contender.. |
My Bets............
I have taken onboard everything that has been said and i have backed the following players..
HARRINGTON..(26/1) PAREZ..(200/1) E/W ELS..... (58/1) HOLMES..(190/1) E/W WOODS...(4.80) APPELBEY..(92/1) WEEKLEY...(101/1) E/W GARCIA.....(22/1) Good luck guys...... |
Heres mine,
Garcia win @ 22.0 ( now 20.0) Garcia top 10 @ 3.3 ( now 2.9) M. Campbell to make cut @ 4.0 C. Parry to make cut @ 3.25 Montie top 10 @ 19.0 ( heart more than head ) Any others had a bet? |
i used to back Monty all the time hoping that one day he would come good in a major...the only time i won monet was when i laid him 1.08 on betdaq when he stood over his second shot to the 18th in the US Open a couple of years ago....
Even though ive given up backing him i would love to see him lift one of these....although i think his best chances have long gone. |
Absolutely awesome watching this yesterday....loved it.
Mickleson 1 shot up over Tiger after Round 1 in the Shark v Tony side bet...thats nothing at all though on this course - around the 12th/13th hole Tiger was 4 up on Lefty!! Great to see Tiger back though and he seems in very decent fettle....wouldnt be surprised to see him come through over the weekend. Excellent starts by my other tips - Villegas, Weekley and Appleby all within 5 shots of the lead and Appleby only 1 off it. If they can all shoot anywhere close to level par in Round 2 they will be in superb position for the weekend. Come on boys...keep it going. |
Looks like my golf betting is as good as my game 8-P
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Great viewing and till 3am........
Well i managed to stay awake till the end and have to agree it was well worth it.
Typical US Open course...one minute your up there looking good and within three holes your thinking i wonder what the cuts going to be...:'D Take one of my selections...JB Holmes going along nicely at level par thriugh 12 then never saw him again, Goosen at level and playing well but shot 5 over on the last few holes....I would be suprised if this was won with an under par score...... Anyone around 3 or 4 over is right in this and i think it might be worth a few small wagers on a couple of players around 4 over par who could shoot 2 or 3 under today to bring them right back into the mix. I was going to put a post up when Tiger was 4 ahead of Mickelson but im glad i didnt...o:D I had a tenner on Tiger when he went out to 7/1 after doubling the first...i think yesterday we all saw why hes the greatest golfer ever..... Anyway only another 71/2 hours and it all starts again. Good luck with all the selections still in contention and i wonder what we will be saying this time tomorrow........ |
I'll post my thoughts a bit later but have had a little each way on hicks at 90-1 i think i still have 3 or 4 bets still in the hunt as for the winning score i think it will be around the 9 or 10 under as they start to get to grips with the course
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9 or 10 Under???????????????:eek!::eek!::eek!:
Sorry Bally mate...Id be amazed if Evens was broken personally.....A couple under at the very most. Ive got an even fiver with Tony for Woods v Mickleson....You want an even fiver on the winning score being better than -5, and I'll say worse that -5??? -5 being no bet? Andres Romero looks worth keeping an eye on - this guy will win a Major sooner rather than later - around 40/1 after Round 1 to win this....could be a good value bet. |
garcia had a shocking opening day
big ernie is looking good
was going to back westwood and donaldo b4 the start but never bothered, wish i had now :C streelman had a very good opening round put cant see him being consistant enough to do it over 4 days, he will start of drift off over today and tomorrow which is reflected in the fact he is 130/1 on betdaq gives me something to watch from 10.00 (once kickball is finished) till 3.00 am |
Firstly..........................
Bally have you been out all night playing poker and getting drunk....? 8-P
Hicks wont be around the leaderboard come midnight today....and as for a 9 under score winning...The USPGA will never let that happen the course played its easiest yesterday and by Sunday i would be suprised if the greens arnt somewhere near 15 on the stint metre which will be like putting down a road...but your right there is some good bets to be had still (one wouldnt be a fiver on the final score with Sharky..:cool:) Im going to have a look in a bit to see if i can spot some value in a couple of players around 4 over.. Yes have to agree with MITN....Els played great and i was going to tip Donald but i think he will fade over the next couple of days when the players start having trouble stopping the balls on the greens... |
round 2 3 balls
backing woods @ 2.20 over mickelson and scott
woods had couple of shocking holes by his standards and still had a decent round, think he will be stronger today also backing donald @ 2.22 over poulter and casey donald had a good day yesterday finishing on even par, poulter and casey had poor days ending on +7 and +8 can see both winning the 3 ball match ups, but 1 from 2 will give me small profit chite you cant do multis on these :C hope you guys enjoy todays action |
ernie els
to be top south african player @ 1.73
surly this is just buying money?? |
Think your right but my only concern is can Els keep playing the way he did yesterday/
ive backed him outright but have laid off today at 14/1....just incase |
Brave Bally
Bally has text me to say he is sticking to his guns and our bet as above on the winning score is on - an even fiver on better than -5 for Bally, worse than -5 for TheShark.
Fair play to Bally for having courage in his convictions:clap: |
tony
u layed off ernie equal profit dutch? or you laid off what u backed him at for free bet?
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From now on............
Bally will be known as the Punter who goes where no other punters dares to go.........8-P
:clap::clap: Good luck Bally........:'D |
No backed Ernie for £8 at 57/1 and laid him at 14/1 for £8
so got a free runner with a profit of £344.00 if he wins |
nice one tony
in my opinion the course is only going to get harder as each day passes
i would be amazed if the winner was -5 or better in my opinion the winner would be lucky to get -2 |
I would love to know what price is on offer for an under par winning score..
Your right by Sunday it will be almost impossible |
we shall see 8-P i still think i'll be right but will hold my hands up and do a pitiful apology if i am wrong and you can ridicule me as much as you wish come monday thought shark may of given me 2-1 though 8-P
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Loooool, im just making room in this section for your apology thread....
Yes you shaould have had the bet with me.... Not lookingg good for the big unders so far..... |
one of my 3 ball bets down
donald finished even par,
poulter +7 :eek!: casey finshed -1 :'D hopefully tiger does the business and i get me money bk 8-P |
both 3 ball bets fecked.....
........me thinks
cant see tiger winning this match up out of the 3, think scott has it in the bag the way hes playing tiger just not at it at all so far |
Lool, did u just see Scott miss from a foot............
Anyway i think Ballys bet is looking good...........loooooooool |
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