Great read from an article by Robert Parker
This years Derby at Towcester has so many imponderables, a new track,V wide bends not conducive to wide runners,invariably one gets experts saying after a wide runner has won a race around Towcester,"SEE no problem,don't know what people are on about",but it is one thing to lead up from the outside ,and cut across in a one off.
At Towcester as soon as they miss their break and dogs are moving wide from the inside, once they get baulked they just get knocked sideways and with the enormous width of the bends and no banking ,they will be going sideways Via Milton Keynes,
Another expert who knows it all keeps saying "It is all about being able to gallop a bend"obviously ,but that does not help if you have been knocked out towards the hare rail.
People are also quoting figures which show a lot of wide runners winning in graded races,but the management have already said in graded races,they drop wide runners down a grade to compensate for being drawn wide,so the figures are meaningless,you can't downgrade dogs in Derby heats
It is asking a lot for a wide runner to hit the traps and lead for 7 rounds, before a missed break and disaster strikes,this is the likely amount of rounds this year with a huge entry of + - 300 expected,
One good thing at least this year they are planning to do away with the madness of only 2 dogs qualifying in the first round.
SO IT IS WHAT IT IS.
So looking for the likely winner I would avoid wide runners,into that category goes the Brilliant winner of last years Derby JT JET,who was my A.Post pick last year at 66/1.Other fancied wide runners would inc King Kid,--Dorota's Woo Woo-Sonic (Maybe)-Forest Con,Vancouver Shea,-Brinkleys King,Murrays Act plus a few other Irish wide runners
NOT FOR one minute am I putting any these dogs down,they are all brilliant.but they are running at a disadvantage.
Another point about Towcester it is 500 m with another 200 metre run to the pick up so a dog will really have to get the trip,2 dogs again I feel are at a disadvantage are Hya Butt and Droopys Who,neither I feel will really get the trip over 7 rounds.
The best of the IRISH RUNNERS I FEEL ARE DROOP'S WILBURY* (50)- GOOD NEWS(50) -BULL RUN BOLT* (50)(-HOT TREND (50) -PRICELESS BRANDY* (16) =,SAB MILLER (50)-WHOOPS JACK* (66) and CLARES ROCkET* (8).
The 4 English doge most likely to succeed are Droops Buick (16) Bubbly Bluebird* (20) and Dorotas WILDCAT**(25)-DROOPYS BONNUCC (66/1I
OTHERS SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RADAR MIGHT INCLUDE NATIVE CHIMES (50),KISS AND HUG(unquoted) DRIVE ON TIP (66) and Black Zack (100) apologies to those I have missed out or forgotten
The huge selection of the above dogs show how open it all is,in fact if you took a position and opposed Bubbly and Clares and backed All of the above, one could still make a nice profit of around 5-6/1
I personally backed as my main bets both Bubbly at 66/1 and Clares at same last year,I have also backed Priceless Brandy and Whoops Jack at 50/1 and Wildcat some time ago at 50/1 I have also done savers on several of the above mentioned to show small profit.
Obviously backing dogs Ante /Post has a danger warning but am so far relieved Bubbly and Cares should be there for kickoff.