My home town club Burton Albion take on Cambridge United tonight in the second leg of their Blue Square Playoff fixture.
The first leg on Friday night ended 2-2, with Burton holding a 2-0 leg until the last 15 minutes, having 2 goals disallowed and also Cambridge being awarded a very dubious penalty which got them back to 2-1 and an even more dubious freekick from which they equalised. On their fans website they (fair play as well) acknowledge how fortunate they had been and that to all intents and purposes this tie should be over.
My first value bet of this game is Daryl Clare to score at anytime for Burton (7/4 Bet365, 2/1 Ladbrokes). "The Dazzler" is Burton's leading scorer, talisman and more importantly penalty taker and in a game where chances could be plentiful, I reckon 2/1 is a cracking bet.
Burtons last two games have provided 12 goals between them and again I think goals will be plentiful - so the over 2.5 goals market should be taken with aplomb (17/20 Bet365) - the second leg between Torquay and Exeter yesterday yielded 5 goals yesterday, and with away goals not counting for anything, shutting up shop is not an option.
Burton do have a good record at Cambridge, W1 D2 L0 of last three visits, but im not convinced that Clough can lead them to Wembley. Cambridge eventually finished second in the Blue Square Prem and their fortunate comeback on Friday could suggest they have luck on their side. Burton have a habit of falling just short and being very creditable losers, and though my heart screams otherwise, my head says that Cambridge at Evs will progress....id prefer to take a price on winning the tie overall as opposed to a 90 minute price, as E/T and/or pens could settle it, but in the absence of these markets online, id favour the home side just prevailing over luckless Burton in 90 mins - i predict a 3-2 home win.
Wont be too disappointed if im wrong though...for me its very much a case of if i do my money i'll have a day out at Wembley to look forward to!!!
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